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still from green-zone gif Yaneer Bar-Yam (NECSI) advocates for the use of ``green zones'' to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The paper ``Beyond contact tracing'' includes a gif that neatly illustrates the concept, a still from which is shown, right.

Alternative domestic UK tier system

The idea of the following is to get to zero without the need for complex interventions, like vaccines or new medicines. This has been achieved around the world, including by New Zealand, and Republic of China.

Moreover, it doens't require top-down implementation by government. Many, though not all, people could simply choose to follow this regime, rather than Westminster's, with sufficient information.

For an area A, with first order neighbours (A^1)_i, and where N_X is the number of cases from community transmission in the last fortnight in area X:

N_A > 0 - `Red' - Don't travel outside A, stay at home, schools closed
N_A == 0 - `Yellow' - Don't travel outside A, schools in A needn't shut
N_A == 0 and N_(A^1)_i == 0 - `Green' - Travel within contiguous green areas only, schools in A open

In most areas the smallest useful A is probably the District Council, or equivalent.

Data

UK

East Anglia

Papers

2003-12-20 Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials, Smith, G., Pell, J.
2016-09-23 World Health Organization names six candidates running for director-general, STATNews
2016-05-12 Ensemble and time probabilities, Taleb N.
2016-05-19 Beyond Contact Tracing: Community-based early detection for Ebola response, Cooney, D, Wong, V, Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-01-26 Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens - Coronavirus: A Note, Norman J., Bar-Yam, Y., Taleb N.
2020-02-14 Global Decentralization for Risk Mitigation and Security, Norman J.
2020-03-13 Naive Probabilism, Crane, H.
2020-03-15 Ethics of Precaution: Individual and Systemic Risk, Taleb N., Norman J.
2020-03-19 Eliminating COVID-19: A Community-based Analysis, Siegenfeld A., Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-03-20 The Korean Clusters, Reuters
2020-03-28 Why Didn’t We Test Our Trade’s ‘Antifragility’ Before COVID-19?, Callahan, G., Norman J.
2020-03-31 White Swan pandemic was preventable, Taleb N.
2020-03-30 Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic , Meyerowitz-Katz
2020-04-05 COVID-19: How to Win, Shen C., Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-04-06 Take the virus seriously. Evolve towards decentralized redundancy., Norman J.
2020-04-08 Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March, Schatzker E.
2020-04-16 Evidence SARS-CoV-2 Emerged From a Biological Laboratory in Wuhan, China, Project E
2020-04-18 Respiratory Health for Better COVID-19 Outcomes Version 2, Elias, B, Shen, C, B, Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-04-23 COVID-19 Superspreader Events in 28 Countries: Critical Patterns and Lessons, Kay, J.
2020-04-27 Did the scientists advising the government on COVID-19 make serious mistakes?, Wren-Lewis S.
2020-05-01 Evidence Supports a Causal Model for Vitamin D in COVID-19 Outcomes, Davies, G., Garami, A., Byers, J.
2020-05-03 Also have an advanced directive because a lot of fiancés and parents are being put in UNCOMFORTABLE situations deciding. Truly, before you head to the crowded beach or nail salon or bowling alley, decide if you're a chest compressions guy or feeding tube vegetable queen., Kalb, B.
2020-05-07 When did America become a can't do country? Here's a conversation I've had many times. A: You can't get new cases to zero B: Here's a bunch of countries that have A: They're small, or islands, or authoritarian, or technologically beyond us, or just different. We can't do it., Srinivasan, B.
2020-05-09 Travel Restrictions for Limiting Community Disease Spread, Green, A, Shen, C., Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-05-14 I’ve landed in Hong Kong after flying from Paris CDG, via London Heathrow. I now have to wait ~8 hours before I get my #COVID19 test results and thus have ample time to tweet about my experience., Chor, L.
2020-05-25 Tail risk of contagious diseases, Cirillo, P., Taleb N.
2020-06-04 Evidence Based Science in the Light of Pandemics, Cirillo, P., Taleb N., Bar-Yam, Y.
2020-06-23 How is the Swedish coronastrategy reported to the Swedish population?, Carlsson, M.
2020-06-24 How can you deliberately Infect your own people?, Vetenskapsforum covid-19
2020-07-00 Independent Scientific Advocacy Group (Rep. of Ireland)
2020-07-28 Hydropxychloroquine + zinc + azithromycin, America's Frontline Doctors
2020-07-31 How Much Alcohol Do You Really Need In Hand Sanitizer?, Chamary, JV
2020-08-05 Early treatment with hydroxychloroquine: a country-based analysis, Covid Analysis
2020-09-07 What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19, Thompson, D
2020-09-19 150'000 people in Sweden now have had chronic covid-19 symptoms for more than 8 weeks (source: novus). That is approx 15% of those who were infected, estimating a million of infections with ifr 0.6% from almost 6000 deaths.Can Europe afford an army of people with chronic disease?, Tosetti, I
2020-09-21 Most Positive Coronavirus Tests Are True Positives, Gideon, MK
2020-10-06 expert reaction to Barrington Declaration, an open letter arguing against lockdown policies and for ‘Focused Protection’ , Science Media Centre
2020-10-13 Green zone map for New Zealand over time (weekly)., Science Media Centre
2020-10-14 John Snow Memorandum, Various
2020-10-16 TAKING THE GREAT BARRINGTON DECLARARTION SERIOUSLY – a thread., O'Brien MP, N.
2020-10-16 Multi-organ impairment in low-risk individuals with long COVID, Dennis, A, et. al.
2020-10-25 a timeline of SARS2-related virus data published in the months after the outbreak. , Chan, A.
2020-10-29 The speech Boris Johnson should deliver tomorrow night, Partly Political
2020-11-00 Zero Covid UK
2020-11-13 DON’T CHASE SWEDISH HERD STRATEGY, Feigl-Ding, E
2020-12-07 Increased Vitamin D Use To Combat COVID-19, Various
2020-12-10 How the novel coronavirus has evolved, Chowdhury, J, Scar, S, Wardell, J
2020-12-22 Wuhan scientist would 'welcome' visit probing lab leak theory, Sudworth, J
2021-01-00 Fresh Air Wales, Jones, R.
2021-01-06 China's Sinopharm vaccine 'most unsafe in world' with 73 side effects, Everington, K.
2021-01-10 Normal behavior: When a surely natural spillover of SARS occurs in your typically SARS-free city with a lab studying diverse, novel SARS pathogens, you make all of that research as inaccessible as possible and prevent a team whose membership you picked from entering the country., Chan, A.
2021-01-14 Covid-sceptic-in-chief @toadmeister appears to have deleted all his tweets from last year ... Here are some of the things he claimed over the last year, O'Brien MP, N.
2021-01-14 ...this new "lockdowns don't work" paper ... makes the same mistake [as] "People in hospital are more likely to have heart disease; therefore hospitals cause heart disease", Chivers, T.J.
2021-01-16 Largest #LongCovid cohort @TheLancet just published: 6 months post-hospital, —76% still had ≥ 1 symptom ... average age 57. The likelihood of developing #LongCovid is not related to severity of symptoms, and more common in younger individuals, Topol, E.
2021-01-16 Rise of the Coronavirus Cranks, Snowdon, C. J.
2021-01-17 All arrivals to UK face hotel quarantine, The Times of London
2021-01-18 Wuhan medics undercover: 'We were told to lie about Covid-19 outbreak', ITV News
2021-01-18 A proactive approach to fight SARS-CoV-2 in Germany and Europe, Baumann, M, et. al.
2021-01-19 Anti-Virus: The Covid-19 FAQ, Various
2021-01-25 Close the borders now – there won’t be a second chance, Morton, A.
2021-01-28 England’s hotel quarantine scheme is better late than never – but it doesn’t go far enough, Lesh, M.
2021-01-29 cheems mindset, Driver, J.
2021-01-30 Offline: The case for No-COVID, Horton, R.
2021-02-03 COVID-19 mythbusters, Snowdon, C. J.
2021-02-05 Do Lockdowns work?, Snowdon, C. J.

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